We’ve had three great weeks of football, but Euro 2016 is now coming to a close. This week sees the semi-finals and final of the tournament in France. The four sides remaining have only got a few days of rest and preparation before the semis get under way. But just which of the sides will be booking themselves a place in Sunday’s final in Paris? We’ve got two very evenly matched clashes that will eventually give us the answer that question.
Wednesday night sees a historic game for Wales, as they take on Portugal in Lyon. Can the Red Dragons produce even more magic to make a first ever tournament final? In case you haven’t heard, that match pits Gareth Bale up against Real Madrid teammate Cristiano Ronaldo. There’s no British involvement in the second semi, but France versus Germany could end up being a classic. Here we’re focusing on both of those clashes and we’ve picked out our best bets for each.
Wednesday 6th July 2016
Portugal v Wales (20:00) – Both teams to score (5/4 with Betfair)
The first semi-final comes from Lyon, with Wales looking to continue their incredible run. This time they’re not up against a main contender like Belgium, they face a Portugal side who are also exceeding expectations. They had a straightforward group, which they were expected to make it through easily. When they struggled against the likes of Iceland and Hungary, few saw this Portugal side staying in France past the last 16. Despite finishing third behind those two sides, the Portuguese are into the semi-finals. Can they go even further and finally win Ronaldo an international trophy?
Despite coming third in their group, the Portuguese are favourites here. They’re priced at 6/5 with Betfair to win in 90 minutes, with Wales the 3/1 outsiders with Bet365. The same bookie prices the draw at 21/10, which is certainly worth a look. Given that all five of Portugal’s matches at this tournament have been level after 90 minutes, another draw here wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Given that they’ve failed to win a match at Euro 2016 in 90 minutes, you could see Portugal struggling here again. The Welsh have shown no fear so far, and they will take a similar approach on Wednesday.
The Welsh blew Belgium away, shocking a side that many were tipping to reach the final. This side of the draw isn’t the strongest, but the Belgians had been backed to make easy work of it and get through. Since Wales have beaten the toughest team on this side of the draw, why wouldn’t you be tempted to back them? The only thing counting against them right now is their defence, which hasn’t been that solid so far. Just two clean sheets in five games shows that they can be hit at the back.
Portugal tend to sit back until someone takes the game to them, and Wales will do that. They’ve hit 10 goals in their five games in France, and they should add to that tally here. Portugal were forced to come out and attack after Poland scored early, and we see something similar happening here. We’re backing this game to open up once the first goal goes in. The quarter finals saw four open games with both teams to score coming in on each. Following that, we’re backing goals in this semi, with BTTS our main tip at 5/4 with Betfair.
Thursday 7th July 2016
Germany v France (20:00) – Over 2.5 goals (6/4 with Sky Bet)
While the first half of the draw was wide open, this side has already seen Italy and Spain knocked out. Left standing from this half are world champions Germany and hosts France, the two favourites for the trophy. They were the two favourites from the start of the tournament, but one is about become rather disappointed. Will the French be able to continue their strong unbeaten tournament record on home soil? Or will the Germans move towards a second major trophy in the space of just two years? This one is a very tough game to call.
Clearly the bookies think so too. Betfair have made France 9/5 favourites on the match betting, with Germany 19/10 with most bookies. The draw follows at 2/1, so clearly there’s little idea on how this one will turn out. These two have evenly matched squads, while the Germans’ advantage in terms of experience is levelled out by France’s home advantage. The Germans are no strangers to playing tournament hosts, they seem to thrive on it. Since 1982 they’ve knocked out six hosts at major tournaments. Most recently they hammered Brazil on their way to winning the 2014 World Cup. Given their record against host nations, they might be worth a look at 2/1 with Bet365.
The Germans are without a few key stars, which could be why they’re slightly bigger odds. With Mats Hummels and Mario Gomez out, plus possibly Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedria, they look a little bit weaker than normal. That should boost French morale, just as their quarter final win did. They put five goals past Iceland in the last round, but they did concede twice. Their defence hasn’t looked great from day one, when Romania threatened them on numerous occasions. Since then things have got worse still, as they conceded against the Republic of Ireland and in the Iceland game.
Their defence looks worried every time they face a set piece, which could cost them. This German side have a lot of creative talent who can pull a back four apart. Once they return to their regular system, they should create more than they did against Italy. Without Hummels in the side they may be weaker at the back, which is a worry as France boast the top three scorers in the competition. Both sides look capable of scoring a few here, and these could end up being a very high scoring game. We’re backing over 2.5 goals at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
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