How Often Do Teams Win from Behind?

In terms of In-Play betting, you’ll often find that odds are longest on a team that has fallen behind within a match. That’s obviously a tempting wager for bettors to take, given that long odds mean more money if the bet turns out to be a winner. On this page I’ll be having a look at the stats on the number of times a losing team managers to turn things around and either claim a draw or, in the most entertaining of circumstances, find a winner.

It’s not always fun when it’s your team that’s on the losing end of a match like that, of course. It’s wonderful when your side is the one that makes the comeback, but in that moment you’re too busy celebrating to remember how it feels to be on the other side. Similarly, when your bet was on course to be a loser and then ends up winning you money because the team that you had a wager on made a comeback, you ignore the pain you felt when it was your money that went down the swanny when the team you backed threw it all away. Have a read through this page to get a better understanding of the likelihood of that happening to you.

What This Refers To

As I always say, not everyone had the same base knowledge of football. There are plenty of people out there that have only a passing interest in the sport – and sometimes not even that – who may still want to bet on football matches. That’s a big part of what this site is about, offering tips and hints to people on how to make money when you do decide to have a flutter on the footy. For the purposes of ensuring we’re all on the same page, then, this is a quick explanation of what it is that I’m talking about.

The German footballer and manager – Josef Herberger once said, “The ball is round, the game lasts ninety minutes, and everything else is just theory”. The game lasting ninety minutes is the crucial thing here. A team could be 1-0 up in the eighty-eighth minute, but if they concede twice in the remaining period then they’ll lose the match. It really is that simple. Most bookmakers operate a ninety minutes policy, which I’ve written about in more detail elsewhere. The key point from that policy is that bookmakers tend to have specific rules for the likes of Correct Score bets that say it must be the score at the full-time whistle. That’s predominately to stop people from claiming that their bet was including extra- time and penalties, but it’s equally worth remembering in terms of not trying to claim a winning bet when your team is winning at half-time but goes on to lose.

What I’m talking about on this page is specifically instances of a football club leading in a match by at least one goal, only for the other team to score enough goals to be declared the winners at the end of the match. It’s that simple. It doesn’t matter when each team scores, nor is it relevant how many times the ball finds the back of the net. It could finish 95-94 and as long as you have placed a wager on the team with the 95 goals to win then you’re sorted.

Looking at the Premier League

I’m going to have a look at a few different leagues in a varied number of countries in order to get a sense of how often it is that clubs within that league and country manages to get back into a match after being behind. The number of clubs that do it doesn’t help as much as knowing which clubs do and which clubs don’t, though, so I’ll specific the clubs and how often they’ve managed it, too. First things first, then, let’s have a look at two seasons worth of the Premier League.

2015-2016

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 398. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 39. In other words, teams won on 9.79% of the occasions that they were behind.

2016-2017

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 405. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 46. In other words, teams won on 11.36% of the occasions that they were behind.

Looking at the Championship

As promised, I’m going to have a look at other divisions to see if there are any clues regarding the average number of times that teams tend to come from behind to win. It makes sense to start off in England and have a look at a couple of years worth of results from the Championship.

2015-2016

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 552. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 48. In other words, teams won on 8.70% of the occasions that they were behind.

2016-2017

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 592. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 59. In other words, teams won on 9.97% of the occasions that they were behind.

Looking at the Bundesliga

Looking at just England will only tell us so much. On top of that, plenty of people like to bet on foreign leagues, so I’m going to have a look at two seasons in Germany and the same number in Spain.

2015-2016

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 337. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 47. In other words, teams won on 13.95% of the occasions that they were behind.

2016-2017

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 331. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 39. In other words, teams won on 11.78% of the occasions that they were behind.

Looking at La Liga

Last but not least, a quick look at those same two season but this time for Spain’s top-flight, La Liga.

2015-2016

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 399. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 40. In other words, teams won on 10.03% of the occasions that they were behind.

2016-2017

Overall number of times that a team was behind: 408. Overall number of times a team won from behind: 48. In other words, teams won on 11.76% of the occasions that they were behind.

What We Can Learn from the Numbers

Knowing how many times a team was able to win points after being ahead is one thing, but knowing what you can do with those numbers is something else entirely. What’s interesting is that, regardless of which league and country we look at, the numbers for that particular division are roughly the same from one year to the next, with just a couple of percentage points in it. What changes rather dramatically, however, is the teams that are able to recover after going behind.

In the Premier League in the 2015-2016 season, for example, West Ham fell behind in eighteen of their matches and went on to win two of them. The following year the number of times they conceded first increased to twenty-three, but the amount of times they made a comeback dropped to two. They also dropped more points in the second season, picking up just ten after having won eighteen the year before. That was perhaps reflective of a manager that had lost his way and players that had developed a weak mentality.

All of the number of the above tables have been taken from transfer markt, a website that should be top of your list for places that you turn to for research. They give rolling details on things such as how many times a team has won points after falling behind and also the opposite – how many times sides have dropped points after they’ve been leading. Looking at this kind of information as a season progresses will give you a good indication of when to Cash Out your bets and when to hold on to them and see how they play out.

It’s Not Just About Winning

When it comes to weighing up what you should do with your bets, it’s not just about trying to decide if the team that you’ve bet on is likely to win their match. For example, you might have placed a bet on the Exchange in which you decided to Lay one team, meaning that a loss or draw would see you win some money. Alternatively you might have bet on a draw and knowing how many times a team manages to avoid losing when they go behind will give you a decide indication of whether or not you should let your bet ride once there’s a goal in the game.

You can also use the information to help you to decide whether the team that you’ve had a bet on either winning or losing is actually more likely to go on to lose. As an example, have a look at Granada CF in the 2016-2017 La Liga campaign. They went behind in thirty of their thirty-eight matches and failed to go on to win any of them. They only managed to snatch four draw, meaning that if they conceded then the safe money was on them losing. Knowing that as the season progresses helps with your In-Play betting. Deportivo de La Coruña, on the other hand, went behind in twenty-one games the season before and failed to win any of them, but they did pick up nine draws. Again, knowing that will have encouraged you to hold on to your bet on the draw for as long as possible.

Ante-Post v In-Play

This type of information is always more likely to be useful when you’re doing In-Play betting, but that’s not the only time that you should look towards information about how often teams manage to complete a comeback before placing a bet. If you know that two teams are going head-to-head then there are a couple of interesting stats that you’ll want to investigate, stats that are interlinked and may point towards which way the match is going to go:

• Which Team Opens the Scoring Most Often?
• How Often Does Each Team Take the Lead?
• How Often Does Each Team Win After Going Ahead?
• How Often Does Each Team Comeback After Going Behind?

You can use all of those bits of information to paint a picture about how the match is likely to go. Let’s say, for example, that you know that the home team takes the lead in 20% of their matches but drops points in 67% of those games. You also know that the away team wins from behind in 20% of their games. In that instance, an ante-post bet on the away team would be a sensible one to place because the stats seem to be saying that they manage to pick up wins often and the home team throws away leads just as commonly.

Famous League Comebacks

As a Liverpool supporters, when I hear the phrase ‘famous comebacks’ I automatically think of Istanbul and the time Liverpool came back from 3-0 down against AC Milan to win the European Cup in 2005. It’s entirely possible to use the stats about winning from behind to bet on the likes of the Champions League and the Europa League, of course, simply by comparing the stats from teams in different countries in just the same manner that you would compare them if they were in the same division. Matches in domestic cups also work in a similar manner, looking at how often teams comeback in matches from their own league games. Anyway, here’s a look at some of the Premier League’s best comebacks.

Tottenham Hotspur 3 – Manchester United 5

It was a Saturday towards the end of September in 2001 when Manchester United turned up at White Hart Lane. They must have been feeling dozy in the sunshine, given that Spurs raced into a 3-0 lead by half-time. One can only assume that Alex Ferguson gave his side one of his famous hairdryers during the interval, however, as the Red Devils went on to score five goals in the second-half and snatch the victory away from Spurs.

Wolverhampton Wanderers 4 – Leicester City 3

The unusual thing about the Spurs and United match was that it was the away team that made the comeback. It’s far more common for the home side to be the ones that get roared on by their supporters to and unexpected victory. That’s what happened between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Leicester City at Molineux Stadium in October of 2003. Two goals from Les Ferdinand and one from Riccardo Scimeca saw the Foxes take a lead within thirty-five minutes, only for Wolves to score four in the second-half, thanks to a brace from Colin Cameron, to win by a goal.

West Ham United 5 – Bradford City 4

The two cases about involved one team going ahead and another coming back, but sometimes a side has to comeback more than once during a football match. In February of 2000 West Ham hosted Bradford City at the Boleyn Ground and saw the Bantams take a 1-0 lead. The Hammers scored two in the first-half only for Bradford to equalise on the stroke of half-time. They then scored two more after the interval to go 4-2 up, only for West Ham to net three times in the last half and hour and win 5-4.

Leicester City 5 – Manchester United 3

In the 2014-2015 season, Leicester City spent between November and April in the relegation zone and seemed doomed to go down. In the end they avoided relegation by six points, with this win over Manchester United back in September proving crucial. The Red Devils went 2-0 up within sixteen minutes, only for Leicester to score a minute later. United went 3-1 one up twelve minutes in to the second-half, but the Foxes netting four times in twenty or so minutes to win 5-3.

Bournemouth 4 – Liverpool 3

When Liverpool took a 2-0 lead over Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium in December of 2016, the hosts must have been fearing the worst. They pulled a goal back at the start of the second-half, but Liverpool went 3-1 up with less than half and hour to play and must have thought that that was that. The Cherries had other ideas, however, and three goals in seventeen minutes saw them snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat.