You could say that Euro 2016 ended in midweek, when Wales tumbled out and France overcame Germany. The Welsh story was one everyone was following, while the second semi was almost like a final. The two favourites went head to head in Marseille on Thursday night, and that now sees the French being touted as heavy favourites to win the final on Sunday. But, just where should you put your money? Here we take a detailed look at the final, picking out our betting tips for this huge clash.
A final of a major tournament is something that is hard to miss, especially given the lack of football to come. After a month of action and ahead of a month without any really quality, competitive games, the Euro 2016 decider isn’t a game to avoid. While it may seem one sided and predictable, these huge games are always worth tuning in for. Plus, if any side knows what it’s like to be shocked in a Euro final as hosts it’s the Portuguese.
Sunday 10th July 2016
Portugal v France (20:00) – Over 1.5 French goals (6/4 with Coral)
Given that France are being priced at 4/9 now to lift the trophy, you can see just how little Portugal are fancied here. Few are expecting an upset, but then again no one saw anything but a win for the hosts in 2004. Portugal made their first ever final when they hosted the tournament 12 years ago, with Cristiano Ronaldo the junior among a fine golden generation of Portuguese players. They were set to take on Greece in the final, and what could go wrong?
They were heavily odds on for the win, while Greece were around the 3/1 mark to win the game. That match ended in tears in Lisbon, as the favourites were on the receiving end of one of the biggest sporting shocks ever. It may seem less impressive in this post-Leicester world, but Greece won the tournament after being 150/1 outsiders. Leaving Portugal distraught.
It’s not too dissimilar to the situation we see now. Ronaldo even referenced it when he was interviewed after the Wales match. He told reporters that he hoped to be crying tears of joy this time around. The chances of him getting to do that seem slim, given the huge gulf in class between the two sides. While Greece were able to upset the odds, they had been paying well. The same can’t be said for Portugal.
Having got here on the back of just one win, Ronaldo’s side aren’t really the kind of opponent you’d expect at this stage. They’re not particularly good at anything. They don’t score enough going forward, and they don’t defend exceptionally well. They play defensive football, but they’ve still conceded five times in six games.
It’s that stat that prompts our main bet on this match. While a France win is worth taking at 21/20 with BetVictor, we’re backing goals for the hosts. They’ve been fantastic in front of goal lately, and they boast the three highest scoring players at the tournament. With Antoine Girezmann up front, they’ve got a man who has hit six goals in five starts this summer. After scoring nine goals in their last three matches, we’re backing the French to score over 1.5 here, which is priced at 6/4 with Coral.
Griezmann has scored in all three knockout matches, including vital braces against the Republic of Ireland and Germany. His dancing celebration has become a familiar sight in the last two weeks, and he’s worth backing to do the same again. Sky Bet price the Atletico Madrid man at 13/8 to score within 90 minutes here, while he’s 9/2 with Bet365 to score first. Given the form that he is in, we’re going to be backing the forward to get among the goals here.